Michael P. Lebowitz
Michael Lebowitz brings more than 25 years of financial markets and risk management experience to RIA Advisors. Throughout his career, Michael has been involved in trading, portfolio construction and risk management involving some of the largest and most active portfolios in the world. In addition to broad institutional experience, he also built a successful independent RIA which allowed him to further extend his experience into the realm of investment management for individuals and family offices. Michael's background and experience are the product of a diverse career path that affords him a unique investment and economic perspective. Grounded in logic and common sense, he blends his vast trading and investment expertise with economic viewpoints that delivers pragmatic and actionable thought leadership to clients. Learn more here .
Articles by Michael P. Lebowitz
- Market Intelligence
Will the Fed Raise Rates? The Case for a Hike—and the Case Against It
Five-year inflation expectations, another tool many Fed members rely on, sit at 2.4%, slightly below where they were before the Iranian conflict.
- Market Intelligence
The S&P 500 Looks Expensive. So Why Does Another Valuation Measure Say It’s Cheap?
One market valuation says run for cover while another says bargain. Both market valuation tools use data from the same 500 S&P companies but interpret the market completely differently.
- Active Insights
Gilligan’s Island Explains Why AI Hasn’t Boosted the Economy—Yet
Over 7 years ago, we wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan’s Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of economic growth.
- Active Insights
TIPS Are Paying 3% Above Inflation. Is That Better Than Stocks?
Would you consider investing in a bond that earns more than three percent after accounting for inflation?
- Market Intelligence
Lacy Hunt Just Changed His Mind on Bonds. Should You?
Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business.
- Active Insights
AI’s $1.65 Trillion Debt Story Is Mostly About One Company
Nikkei Asia’s reporting of hyperscalers’ hidden debt doesn’t change our conclusion, but it does complicate it as we will explain.
- PowerAdvice
AI Bond Panic Is Missing One Critical Fact
The bearish hyperscaler narrative is not all it’s cracked up to be, as we will explain. “ Carnage in hyperscaler bond land ”, claims the Tweet below.
- Active Insights
Yield Curve Warnings and Market Rotations: Signals Investors May Be Misreading
Bond market pundits often warn that bear yield curve flatteners or inverted yield curves ultimately lead to recessions.
- Market Intelligence
Peace in Iran: Can a Deal Drive a Second Half Rally?
Investors should be thinking ahead. What will a peace deal, whether it’s this week or in months, mean for markets?
- Research
A Massive Wave of New Stock Supply Is Headed for Markets
Now, the Financial Times claims that Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are planning similarly large equity raises to fund their 2026 capital expenditures.
- Market Intelligence
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Are About To Drain Wall Street’s Liquidity
While IPO boom talk is great for clickbait, nobody is asking the most important question. Where will the money come from?
- Market Intelligence
SpaceX Isn’t the Biggest IPO Story. Funding It Is.
There is a more important question stemming from the SpaceX IPO and other large deals that few seem to be asking: where will the money come from?
- Research
Quantum Computing Is Real. Commercial Success Is Another Story
Sudden, significant, and fundamental change. It is also a perfect adjective for coining the next potential technological innovation—quantum computing
- Research
The AI Bubble Warning Wall Street Doesn’t Want to Hear
Given the strong correlation between oil prices and CPI, the type of normalization could profoundly reduce CPI and, with it, sharply reduce bond yields.
- Artificial Intelligence
Fast AI Adoption Could Reshape Jobs, Wages, and Wealth for Decades
Therefore, we follow our bullish case with a different perspective on how AI could negatively impact the economy, especially in the near term.
- Research
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Concern About Inflation and Higher Rates
We think the Fed’s mindset is largely neutral, not necessarily hawkish, as the media and markets largely portray.
- Active Investing
SpaceX Targets Up to $2 Trillion IPO Valuation With Starlink Driving Profit Surge
SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th.
- Artificial Intelligence
AI Infrastructure Spending Is Becoming a Major Driver of US Economic Growth
The US economy’s curb appeal looks great.
- Active Investing
Nvidia, Rising Yields, and Options Pressure Set Stage for a High-Stakes Earnings Move
Rates are rising. The 30-year UST yield is now above 5.00%. High interest rates compress the multiples that help justify NVDA’s valuation
- Market Intelligence
S&P 500 Surge Masks Weak Breadth as Options Flow and Gamma Drive Price Action
Similarly, while the broad market indexes have performed well, the bulk of the gains are coming from a relatively small handful of companies.
- Research
Kevin Warsh Takes Over Fed as Market Rally Shows Signs of Structural Weakness
Miran projected a year-end 2026 Fed Funds rate of 2.625%, nearly a full percentage point below the current median of 3.42%. That dovish voice is now gone.
- Market Intelligence
Intel’s 200% AI Surge: Is Wall Street Pricing In 2028 Already?
Momentum and gamma are driving the outperformance, and, in their wake, a supportive narrative is trying to justify it.
- Active Investing
Labor Market Signals Are Breaking From History Ahead of the Next Jobs Report
Declines in temporary help services employment preceded the last three recessions by 6 to 12 months in each case.
- Alternatives & Digital Assets
Gold Bugs Keep Missing This Critical Inflation Truth
Gold bugs often claim that when more dollars are in circulation, each dollar buys less; prices rise, and gold, as a store of value, helps protect purchasing power from that decline.
- Active Investing
Nvidia Losing Leadership as AMD and Intel Surge
. NVDA is now the laggard within its own sector, an unfamiliar position for a stock that has effectively been the market for the last 24 months.
- Active Investing
AI Spending Boom Meets Market Reality: Alphabet Wins While Meta and Microsoft Get Repriced
The market isn’t punishing AI spending. It is demanding receipts that justify the magnitude of AI spending.
- Active Investing
Private Credit Chaos Is Crushing BDCs—Opportunity or Trap?
The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones.
- Research
Wall Street Sent a Clear Signal: No Guidance, No Mercy
The stark message from Wall Street is that forward sales and earnings guidance now take precedence over recent financial results.
- Active Investing
Few Stocks Are Driving This Rally While Most Lag Behind
Regarding breadth, consider that despite the S&P 500 being at a record high, only 65% of stocks are above their 20-day moving averages
- Market Intelligence
Inside Private Credit: Growth, Liquidity Strain, and Rising Market Concerns
The private credit tremors started with the bankruptcies in the auto sector — Tricolor and First Brands.
- Active Investing
Record Low Consumer Sentiment Meets Record High Markets
The concern, however, is forward-looking. Sentiment doesn’t just measure how people feel; at times it can shape how they spend.
- Market Intelligence
Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?
As a result, some people think that recent rumblings in private credit may be a precursor to a new financial crisis.
- Active Investing
AI Arms Race Heats up While Apple Waits for Perfect Entry Point
While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash.
- Research
What Beta Misses When Markets Turn Volatile
Given recent volatility and declining prices, the timing could not be better to explore both the power of beta and its important constraints.
- Research
VIX vs. Reality: Tension Building Beneath Surface of This Market
The bearish interpretation is that the VIX is telling the truth and realized volatility is the lie.
- Market Intelligence
Oversold Stocks and Oil Spikes Signal Opportunity, Not Panic
Behavioral finance calls this availability bias: the tendency to judge the likelihood of an outcome by how easily a vivid example comes to mind.
